I wonder… if your buddies went long on stock this week, do you push it just a bit higher before the next storm, so they exit?
It would be hilarious for the Truth Social early warning to be true-true-false. At some point he will do the opposite and only the closest insiders will profit.
I split this evolving situation according to different scenarios and try to weight their relative probability. What’s the motive, where’s the gain?
A) 80% Some variation of pure incompetence where they tried some shit with whatever aim and weren’t prepared for the hard pushback they got served quickly and decisively. Current events are capitulation, at least for a moment.
B) 15% We are in a Russia-like scenario where this administration needs to govern from fear : population fear deportation and can’t elect another government and fear from the companies that he can crash anything at will without remorse : pay regularly to avoid the destruction of your business model. Mafia protection tax will be lucrative for the few people at the very top.
C) 5% Wider destruction of society with genocide and a new flavour of slavery. Luckily this one is difficult and stoping at a mid point, pivoting to B, is easier. Achieving stability in a “network city” scenario doesn’t seems plausible to me : one small example: try to manufacture stuff to give your ruler class quality healthcare without any scale because war killed so much people… modern stuff is outrageously complicated.
How can we price the stock correctly if we don’t know how much of the profit margin needs to be cut to account for bribes? If Apple shouldered the bribe on its own is this a disadvantage when their competitors gets tariff relief for free? Do they pay every 3 months or every year? Maybe we learn the bribe price on the quarterly conference call? Apple has some kind of leverage against the US government and this isn’t an expense?
I have more questions than a three years old!
Attributing all the merit to Carney in a time of election seems a bit… optimistic? No doubt he was an insider on this brilliant strategy but giving him the unshared paternity is a bit of a stretch.
Whoever came up with this first isn’t ultimately important : I will gladly vote for someone smart enough to understand the strategy and with the connections to push it and see it implemented. No other PM candidate can have me sleep at night with the trust that we try to protect our interest with the best strategy available for our limited ressources.
Also the “if the US won’t lead the world, we will” comment gave such a hopeful vibe, it reminded me of Obama or Jack Layton campaign style.
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Then what if the process doesn’t stop? Bonds interest keep on rising until June-July. The not independent anymore central bank intervene and the USD devaluation gets spectacular!