Fucking crash already.
good
I don’t know if it’s still going, but they were giving out free first month sub recently. You can grab it, cancel immediately, and cost them a few hundred dollars in tokens over the month using Codex.
Oh hell yeah.
They will never be profitable, it’s completely obvious at this point.
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If you invent something people want, they’ll buy it. If you invent something nobody wanted or asked for then you’re going to have some trouble.
Not to mention shoving it down our fucking throats!
It’s also a product that is more expensive to produce the more people actually use it.
Just pop already FFS
None of that is going to be anything you’d actually want, at most its a game of pass the parcel where someone else leads the ai game meanwhile you are financially fucked for several years.
I don’t think you understand the reality of our future. “Oh no! Stocks!” While literally everything is burning around us. Yes. Take it out. End the stock market and end the capitalist structure that’s causing it. This is going to happen regardless. Might as well make it happen faster so it’s more manageable than if we keep trying to prop it up.
I would love to live in a world where I don’t have to hear the words “NASDAQ” and “Dow Jones” ever again.
You aren’t exactly painting yourself as an oracle here. Spouting doom will always leave you correct eventually, but being wrong for decades beforehand doesn’t become insight just because something finally breaks.
Why are you so confident that deliberately accelerating a collapse makes it “more manageable”? If the dot-com boom had lasted long enough for actual revenues to catch up with valuations, the eventual correction could’ve been far less severe. Buying time can give the underlying technology a chance to deliver. It’s getting more efficient per token at an incredible rate, and there’s enormous pressure to improve hardware efficiency too. At some point, falling costs and growing paid usage could make the economics sustainable, though neither of us knows when, or whether, that’ll happen. You’re assuming that time can only make things worse, then treating that assumption as a reason to burn it all down.
Also worth noting the increase in power generation has pushed us to add 50% to our total global solar capacity in the last two years. That’s fucking awesome and unlikely to stop increasing suddenly.
I’m not saying nothing’s wrong, or that all these companies are good guys, fuck no. But confidently predicting doom now is no more convincing than all the previous prophecies that predicted doom.
but being wrong for decades beforehand
When’s the last time we went decades without a “once in a generation” type economic catastrophe?
The topic here was the collapse of civilisation?
Fair enough. It seemed to be going back and forth but the guy you responded to is arguably talking about society as a whole.
I guess I interpreted it as a full collapse because they’re implying that AI as a technology would disappear entirely, which at this point would require all computers to disappear or regress to a primitive state.
If the dot com boom… So we’re just using hypotheticals to boost positivity?
Often speeding up something, gives you more control. Think of riding a bike. Going long stretches and remaining upright is easy. But when your kid is in front and breaks unexpectedly, you have to slow and do that back and forth thing with the handle bars to remain upright. Now imagine letting the AI bubble pop now. Better for it to pop while there’s still functioning governments, than when those governments are at the edge of breaking.
Yeah solar is great, I agree. But we’re still building fossil fuel power plants and solar has done nothing so far to stop that. It simply slows it. If the fall happens right now, everything collapses. We’ve stopped the acceleration of the climate crisis, and humanity has a chance to survive at 1.5C+. Humanity can rebuild. If we collapse at 3 or 4° C, we won’t have any ability to rebuild, as there’s a much larger collapse happening.
The point is that society is going to collapse regardless. It’s better for it to happen now because it gives humanity the best chance to survive. If we shut down civilization now, everything can come back. The earth can heal and we can survive. If it collapses in 2120, the earth is a much more formidable environment to try to nurture small cultures of people.
And as of right now? AI is the #1 enemy to the environment. And for what? Fake videos? So if we can end AI right fucking now, it sets a much more livable future for human beings. And honestly, a much more humane one. So if capitalism has to go down with AI, and society has to go down with capitalism, it’s the most humane option. At least people will have a chance. If we continue down the path we’re on, there’s really no hope for a future.
“So we’re just using hypotheticals” meanwhile your entire argument depends on civilisation definitely collapsing, doing so later definitely being worse, and doing so now leaving humanity able to rebuild.
I offered a possibility. You’ve built a whole prescription for humanity around your predictions.
And your bike analogy involves slowing down and steering to avoid a crash. You’re advocating deliberately crashing because you’ve decided a worse accident is inevitable further down the road.
There’s a lot wrapped up in that certainty, and its a sentiment that does personally annoy me for several reasons: You’re assuming the problems you see won’t be meaningfully understood or addressed by anyone else, and that because you can’t see a workable solution, there isnt one. You’re treating the limits of your own foresight as the limits of what’s possible. Stop and consider whether you really consider yourself an unparalleled engineer and problem solver of the modern era. Dont tell me the answer, just ponder it.
Then, when it comes to your preferred scenario, suddenly humanity can cooperate, adapt and rebuild after civilisation collapses. Why does human ingenuity get to do so much heavy lifting after the catastrophe, but count for so little in preventing it? There’s a huge juxtaposition in that reasoning.
You’ve scrutinised the future you dislike for everything that could go wrong, and waved through the future you prefer on everything that could go right. That’s a very shaky basis for deciding everyone else would be better off enduring a collapse now.
And “if we shut down civilisation now, everything can come back” is doing an extraordinary amount of work there. How are you keeping people fed, water clean, medicines available and nuclear facilities maintained? Who’s coordinating any of that through the collapse you’re welcoming? Those are fairly significant details to skip on the way to “the earth can heal”.
You don’t get to dismiss uncertainty in my argument while treating the most optimistic version of your own catastrophe scenario as a certainty, that’s fucking nonsense.
I get that you’re concerned but this is irrational and you probably need to talk to someone serious if this is actually weighing heavily on you. If its just an idle rant, less so.
AI isnt going to end, the big dog companies might go down, but you can run very good ones on your computer these days. Helps to look into stuff, the unknown is always scarier than the known.
tl;dr
AI is built from mass theft and anything built with it deserves to be stolen.
Companies having done that doesn’t make it fundamental to the technology. That’s just something a lot of people who base their worldview on article headlines parrot.
Don’t get me wrong, those practices are bad. But they come from the incentives and behaviour of the companies involved. The technology doesn’t require them. That’s a failure of a system that rewards companies for taking whatever they can get away with.
All of this is a capitalism problem, focusing on the technology is a distraction that will never achieve anything.
You’ve built a whole prescription for humanity around your predictions.
Gonna steal this.
Perfectly sums up most Lemmite’s opinions.
$10b revenue for quarter ($40b annualized), with claim of $50b annualized for september (not october claimed in OP)
It is also having massive fundraising problems, getting $11b-$15b out of targetted $30b, covering about 1 quarter of losses ($10.5b this quarter up despite about 50% revenue growth over last quarter). It’s forced compute spending increasing a lot next quarter, and then it pays Oracle $15b/quarter extra for compute in 2027. It’s optimistic gross margins on inference at the end of the year were 50% even as they cut prices.
Industry growth is slowing overall. OpenAI would need to average 20.3% revenue growth/quarter to break even at end of 2029. That is higher than their projected 2029 revenue, which with $250b/year in forced compute purchases then, would still leave them burning $70b/year.
There’s no obvious escape for OpenAI.
We lose money on every sale we make… but we make up for it in volume.
I mean, that was the joke for Amazon for years, but…look where they are now.
But I just don’t understand the massive hype around LLMs. The cost per 1M tokens has dropped, significantly, since 2023 or so. And I don’t think there is any reason to expect it not to continue. If you host it yourself, it’s basically free other than hardware and electricity.
Sure, with agents like claude code, you may use a bit more tokens or use it more often, etc, and the best models are more expensive. But not every task needs the best model or even a paid model at all. And people seem to be finding ways to fan out things to prefer local models for simple stuff, escalate to something paid, etc.
I just don’t get the business model at all, but maybe I’m just too stupid to understand. It’s also possible we have an Enron-style situation, but spanning multiple companies and/or industries…
Amazon was building a platform, that now they use as a rentier. Bad for society, good for Amazon.
But LLM models don’t have that. You can swap one out for another with little effort - hell, I do it daily. And with that, it means that you’re a commodity . . . which also means you can’t ever get those initial losses back if your competitor (like Chinese models) doesn’t have them.
Have you seen openrouter.ai? They are more or less based around that idea, I think. Routing to whatever is best fit - most likely on price, I’d think (?) and/or currently up.
I have not set it up myself, but I think there is a way to have opencode or the like prefer local models for certain things, then escalate to something remote (presumably paid) if needed.
Also, opencode.ai gives you so many free tokens per day on some of their models.
I mean, that was the joke for Amazon for years, but…look where they are now.
indeed, i refused to buy stock because it was costing $1 to make 80c in sales, what sort of business is that? and yet here we are, to be fair their cloud business is the big profit centre and that came later
“The money we lose increases volumetrically.”
OpenAI is starting to look like the world’s most expensive experiment in proving that revenue and profitability are two very different things. The technology is impressive, but if every new customer brings another mountain of computing costs, scaling up might just mean losing money faster.
According to their own plans they expect to lose several hundred billions between 2026-2030, but revenue will catch up to the losses somewhere along the way?
Where are they raking the money from? Who is giving them billions of dollar? Are all investors and CEOs dumb as a bucket?
I’m so confused.
debt, wallstreet etal buying their bonds
What I cannot understand is that the cost per 1M of tokens keeps going down.
This stuff is converging on nearly free, especially if you don’t use the most expensive model and even more especially if you opt to host your own infrastructure and run models yourself.
As someone who doesn’t know much about their paid tiers, if you host it on your hardware, are there really some that are worth paying for vs just using one that’s available for free? I kind of assumed there wasn’t much of a difference and that’s why they were trying to ban ones who had “outside influence.”. Because in the end they’ll all be using mostly the same data sets and the differences will be who is manipulating the answers to influence the end users, which has some profit to it, but not nearly as much as they would need
I’m not an expert either. I mostly use Opus at work and I don’t pay for it - the company does. I’ve noticed Fable almost seems like a waste for a lot of tasks, so mostly I don’t use it. I’ve not tried dialing it down to Sonnet or even Haiku to see how things fare, but keep meaning to try that out.
If you look at leaderboards like:
https://llm-stats.com/leaderboards/llm-leaderboard
You’ll see Fable 5.2 is at the very top with 61.1. Even Opus is 58.7.
Here, you can see the very top is 54.9 from Kimi and I’m not sure which of these you can host yourself. My understanding is that just because something is open weight doesn’t mean you can download it and in some instances, even when you can, the hardware to run it is not something exactly consumer-class (but a company might choose to build or rent that hardware themselves).
https://llm-stats.com/leaderboards/open-llm-leaderboard
When you remember how people went gaga over this in 2022…imagine using a model that “lags” some of the top-tier stuff but applied to more mundane things - it’s not like the capabilities from 2022 or whatever evaporated. Suppose you assume you can run something at decent enough speeds, but it “lags” the others by 6 months to a year?
At some point, it just seems to me there will be diminishing returns to keep paying for the most expensive option. My company offers me Fable now and I don’t find that I need it for day to day things. For all I know, Haiku might be enough for some things.
It’s a problem they’re running headlong into. Anthropic basically is going to suck all the money out of the market and their IPO suggests they’re going on a spending spree and will issue more debt, which makes it even tighter.
Anthropic
I was looking at their own info on their IPO, and their profit is a negative $23.3 billion.
Bubble will be even more glorious when it bursts
Some of us have lived through bubbles bursting, and it’s never fun for us normal folks. You might want to temper your expectations a little bit.
Yes, I too have lived through many of those bubbles. Did it suck for me? Yes. Do I still enjoy seeing my enemies fail? Yes.
I can have it both ways even if you cannot.
I probably can because I’m most likely not in danger of losing my job and apartment. This time.
That can’t be said for everyone, and I guess I’ve got enough empathy to give a shit about that
You have empathy for billionaires?
No I have empathy for the people who’s lives are going to be fucked when this bubble pops.
Decidedly not the billionaires. They will, again, be just fine.
In fact, it’ll be a fire sale for them and many of them will get more wealthy.
It’s going to be an absolute shitshow if it’s anything at all like dot-com bubble. Having things lose 80% of their value or go to zero even may be something edgelords think is exciting and/or hilarious, but the fallout is something all of us will feel.
I don’t think it will be at all glorious.
Well, it’s a lot bigger than dot com. Concerning.
I can enjoy the failings of billionaires while being concerned for the common people at the same time.
The billionaires are going to be basically unaffected
That’s exactly the thing.
They will live and have food but they don’t care about that. They care about money and they’ll lose billions.
In order of appearance: futures investment, other AI companies, yes.
Bugatti oil changes ain’t cheap!
I hear it sits around most of the time. Very selfish of the owner.
Thinking the whole industry is preticated on the assumption of a government bailout in exchange for unprecedented surveillance.
We gotta see if any of the CEOs running these companies are connected to old money somehow (either in the US or overseas). Why can’t it ever be nice people that are running the show?
Just as DoD harrassed ANT over full skynet permissions, you don’t need old money/old politician control vectors, the bond villains just need to understand that life is easier (well paid) for them if they cooperate with skynet.
What do you consider old money when it comes to the internet age? For the last good while it seems all the money surrounding PayPal/Oracle/Amazon seem to be the medium age money now. Old might be considered Jobs/Gates.
That said Powell (Steve Jobs Wife) was appointed to the board of Skydance last month.
When you’re building an ever higher building by excavating the foundation to keep stacking things on top … eventually, you’re going to run out of material.
Like Jenga!
🫧🫧🫧
