Most of the former nations can at least offset this with immigration, while the latter ones don’t
Countries that take immigrants vs countries that don’t:
I mean, South Korea and Japan’s birth rate is a serious problem.
The issue is less that they’re going ‘extinct’, and more that the population pyramid is gonna look real fucky going forward, and that comes with… economic issues. And potentially cultural issues.
In EU it isn’t serious problem?
It is, but not as bad. The EU’s birth rate is higher than Japan’s, and the EU is much more immigrant-friendly - and if that makes you suck in air through your teeth, let me clarify - that’s a relative estimation. SK and Japan are… infamously hostile towards immigration.
Those look very similar to me. I would say Japan is now where Poland will be in 10 years. Why it’s a problem for Japan but not Poland?
Those look very similar to me. I would say Japan is now where Poland will be in 10 years. Why it’s a problem for Japan but not Poland?
That’s the thing about population pyramids - they don’t just move up evenly. They’re adjusted by the ongoing mortality of each age group and the size of the next age group down. Poland and Japan are on the same trajectory, but Japan is, effectively, much further along. More ~30-40 years than ~10. The emphasis is less on the largest ‘boom’ generation, and much more on the general trend of the ‘youngest’ generations shrinking, growing, or being stable. In Poland, it’s uneven - closer to shrinking than stable, but more stable than Japan, which is only shrinking.
Even relatively small differences can have an outsized effect in making the older generations an ever-larger proportion of the population despite their lifetime mortality going up with each age bracket. Compare the percentages here. “Boom” generation aside, Japan’s retiree cohort is roughly 150% the youth cohort. That’s not a good sign. For Poland to end up with those numbers in a decade, it would have to have effectively no mortality in the elder cohorts - extremely unlikely.
That being said, it is a problem for Poland going forward - as well as many other developed countries.
There is nothing that justifies the weird reaction that westerners have towards Asian countries. It’s all a spectacle to make themselves feel better.
No one could answer this question.
.8 birth rate is going to be a huge problem for South Korea in a few years. The rest are just “oh no, capitalism’s infinite growth will be finite after all”
Can you elaborate? Why 0.8 in South Korea is so much worse than 1.08 in Poland?
The growth (or in this case decline) is exponential. 1.08 is bad, 0.80 is terrifying. 1.08 is roughly half of the fertility needed for a stable population (about 2.1 children per woman). This means that per generation your population shrinks by half its size. 0.8 is another 25% lower. At an exponential rate these differences add up fast. The first one gives you (roughly) one child per 8 great grandparents. The other one needs 18. So over 3 generations the population shrinks by another factor of more than a half.
Wait, is the chart ”births per person” or ”per woman”? I was reading it as per person, so 1.08 per person would be about 2.16 per woman.
Edit: probably per woman. Lines up better with https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=JP . Grumble grumble numbers without units.
