• dokarimesa@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    The sneaky part is that an AI trading strategy can look profitable in testing without actually predicting anything.

    Say you ask it to build a strategy, test it on old prices, then keep tweaking until the chart looks good. You’ve effectively let it study the answer key. It may just be fitting historical noise.

    A more useful test is to:

    1. Keep a later chunk of data completely out of development.
    2. Test the frozen strategy on that untouched period, using only information available at each trade.
    3. Include fees, bid–ask spreads and realistic execution prices.
    4. Compare it with a simple benchmark, not just “did it make money?”

    Even passing that doesn’t guarantee future profits. But “look, the backtest goes up” is a much lower bar than it sounds. Automating the search can just help you find a convincing bad strategy faster.

  • TheLeadenSea@sh.itjust.works
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    1 year ago

    When people say they use AI for stock trading, they don’t mean LLMs. There are stock AI models that have existed long before LLMs

  • sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    1 year ago

    Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.

    🐬 There we go, a seahorse!

    Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.

    🐳 Haha, got it, its a seahorse!

    Oh no, not again. Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.

    🐙 I finally did it! Seahorse achieved!

    No, what’s wrong with me, why can’t I do anything right?. Oh no, not again. Wait, that’s wrong. Sorry 😜, I was trying to generate a seahorse emoji.

  • Credibly_Human@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    This is funny, but just to be clear, the firms that are doing automated trading have been using ML for decades and have high powered computers with custom algorithms extremely close to trading centers (often inside them) to get the lowest latency possible.

    No one who does not wear their pants on their head uses an LLM to make trades. An LLM is just a next word fragment guesser with a bunch of heuristics and tools attached, so it won’t be good at all for something that specialized.

    • thespcicifcocean@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      I hate that ai just means llm now. ML can actually be useful to make predictions based on past trends. And it’s not nearly as power hungry

  • ieatpwns@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Lmfao I saw someone on the train just last week asking chat gpt how they can turn a profit from all their Friday morning losses

    Off of Robinhood screenshots too